While bushfires are pretty common at this time of year, this year has been catastrophic due to ongoing drought conditions. The loss of human lives so far is not huge in numbers (though significant for families who have lost loved ones), but the loss of wildlife, both plant and animal, and property, is staggering.
Here's a basic map of all the places that are on fire today: https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/
And here's a summary of the stats across all 6 states and 2 territories from end of last week:
- 19 dead
- 29 missing
- 303 bushfires burning (most are significant)
- 6,238,000 hectares/15.5 million acres burned (this is equivalent to Europe's ENTIRE coastline - more than 24,000 square miles)
- 209 Homes destroyed (that's expected to go up as reports come in after Saturday's big fires)
Below I've included the Quick Guide on Climate Change and Bushfires from the Guardian, which is an independent Australian newspaper. Because climate is a system, the connections are not linear, but they are still pretty clear. I know there are lots of folks out there who don't believe the significant scientific evidence that climate change is happening. To you I would ask - what's the risk if you're wrong? I'd say the situation in Australia provides evidence that the risk is pretty high.
Climate change and bushfires
Does climate change cause bushfires?
The link between rising greenhouse gas emissions and increased
bushfire risk is complex but, according to major science agencies,
clear. Climate change
does not create bushfires, but it can and does make them worse. A
number of factors contribute to bushfire risk, including temperature,
fuel load, dryness, wind speed and humidity.
What is the evidence on rising temperatures?
The Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO say Australia has warmed by 1C since 1910 and temperatures will increase in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says
it is extremely likely increased atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases since the mid-20th century is the main reason it is
getting hotter. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards research centre says
the variability of normal events sits on top of that. Warmer weather
increases the number of days each year on which there is high or extreme
bushfire risk.
What other effects do carbon emissions have?
Dry fuel load - the amount of forest and scrub available to burn -
has been linked to rising emissions. Under the right conditions, carbon
dioxide acts as a kind of fertiliser that increases plant growth.
So is climate change making everything dryer?
Dryness is more complicated. Complex computer models have not found a
consistent climate change signal linked to rising CO2 in the decline in
rain that has produced the current eastern Australian drought. But
higher temperatures accelerate evaporation. They also extend the growing
season for vegetation in many regions, leading to greater transpiration
(the process by which water is drawn from the soil and evaporated from
plant leaves and flowers). The result is that soils, vegetation and the
air may be drier than they would have been with the same amount of
rainfall in the past.
What do recent weather patterns show?
The year coming into the 2019-20 summer has been unusually warm and
dry for large parts of Australia. Above average temperatures now occur
most years and 2019 has been the fifth driest start to the year on
record, and the driest since 1970.Also, some environmentally oriented friends just posted a link to this map on facebook - go here for the live version: https://hotspots.dea.ga.gov.au/ I included the legend so it's clear that the "hotness" is about hours since the hotspot cropped up on the satellite scan, not the hotness of the fire.
Bias and Fact Check on my sources:
Sydney Morning Hearad https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-sydney-morning-herald/
The Guardian: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-guardian/
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